By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL, Feb 27 (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports likely rose for a ninth straight month in February as a global boom in artificial intelligence investment drove a surge in chip sales, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 24.0% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of nine economists.
That would be weaker than the 33.8% rise in January, when exports posted their strongest increase since August 2021, but still the second fastest year-on-year growth in the current streak that started in June 2025.
Data in January and February are often distorted due to timing differences in the Lunar New Year holidays, which were in February this year and January last year. There were 19 working days in February, compared with 22 in the same month a year before.
Chip prices are rising more sharply than expected, while stock inventories still remain low in South Korea and Taiwan, economists noted, as they expected strong momentum in semiconductor exports.
“There is a high possibility of semiconductor export growth exceeding 100% throughout the first half,” said Stephen Lee, an analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
“Still, there is little momentum in autos and machinery, weighed by tariff effects,” Lee added.
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 23.5%, led by a 134.1% surge in semiconductors. Shipments to China rose 30.8%, while those to the U.S. and the European Union grew 21.9% and 11.4%, respectively.
South Korean policymakers said last week they would still follow through on a trade deal reached with Washington in November, amid renewed uncertainty in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs are illegal.
The Bank of Korea on Thursday raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing a chip boom in exports, as the central bank held interest rates steady and signalled policy would stay unchanged for the next six months.
In February, imports likely rose 13.0% from a year earlier, after increasing 11.6% in January, the survey also showed. That would mark the strongest rise since September 2022.
The median estimate for the monthly trade balance stood at a surplus of $10.0 billion, wider than $8.71 billion in the previous month.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for February on Sunday, March 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon LeeEditing by Shri Navaratnam)
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